Here’s the Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 chart from January 1, 2025 until now. Bitcoin has actually outperformed the SPX this year, but it still feels like it’s lagging.
The reason is that compared to its ATH, BTC is still behind. While the S&P 500 keeps making new highs, Bitcoin remains well below its peak.
On top of that, Bitcoin is much more volatile, which means we feel the drawdowns more often — and especially the bigger drops. A 3% S&P decline feels normal, but a 10% Bitcoin drop feels devastating.
Indices don’t have that level of volatility, so the downside doesn’t hit us in the same way. Their smoother price action creates a false sense of consistent progress.
I think that’s why psychology makes it seem like BTC is doing worse than it actually is. Our emotions contradict the actual performance data.
